So you put $10,000 into a company called Nebius six months ago. Today, you’d have over $43,000.
Let that sink in for a second. That’s not a crypto pump-and-dump or a meme stock you read about on some degenerate subreddit. This is Nebius Group, ticker NBIS, a company that most people hadn't even heard of a year ago. Now it’s a $29 billion darling of the AI revolution.
And I have to ask: are we all losing our minds?
The $20 Billion Price Tag on Microsoft's Desperation
The Shovel Salesman in a Gold Rush
Let’s be real about what’s going on here. The entire tech world is in a state of panic-induced euphoria over AI. Every company, from the behemoths down to two guys in a garage, needs more computing power than God. The bottleneck isn't ideas; it’s hardware. Specifically, it's getting your hands on NVIDIA’s ludicrously expensive, high-powered chips.
Enter Nebius.
They call themselves a "neocloud provider," which is a fancy way of saying they build and operate data centers stuffed to the gills with the exact AI hardware everyone is desperate for. They’re not inventing the next ChatGPT. They’re the landlord for the guys who are inventing the next ChatGPT.
The big news sending the stock into orbit is a deal with Microsoft. The details were fuzzy back in September, but now we hear it’s a monster: up to $19.4 billion for access to over 100,000 of NVIDIA's new GB300 chips.
Read that again. Microsoft, one of the richest and most powerful tech companies in human history, is paying a company you've never heard of nearly twenty billion dollars to rent server space.
The corporate-speak translation is that this deal will “ease data center shortages” and allow Microsoft to “free up its own server farms.” My translation? Microsoft is so behind the eight ball on building out its own infrastructure to meet the insane demand from things like OpenAI and its own Copilot that it’s throwing money at anyone who has a warehouse with a power outlet and a line to NVIDIA.
This isn’t a sign of Nebius’s genius. It’s a symptom of Microsoft’s desperation.
The Absurd Math of Losing More by Making More
A Business That Burns Money
Okay, so they’re in the right place at the right time. They’re selling shovels in a gold rush. That has to be a great business, right? You’d think so.
I looked at their second-quarter numbers, and it’s the kind of math that gives me a migraine. Revenue growth? A staggering 625% year-over-year, hitting over $105 million. That’s the headline everyone sees. That’s the number that gets the stock jockeys all hot and bothered.
But you have to keep reading.
Their net loss didn’t shrink. It grew. It deepened to over $91 million from an already-bad $62 million a year ago. They’re bringing in six times more money and somehow managed to lose 50% more cash in the process. How is that even possible? It’s like a hot dog stand that sells a million hot dogs but loses two dollars on every single one.
This is a bad model. No, 'bad' doesn't cover it—this is a five-alarm dumpster fire of a business model dressed up in an AI tuxedo.
They’re aggressively building out capacity, sure. They have a $1.7 billion “war chest” to do it. But that’s just more money to set on fire. They’re spending like drunken sailors to get bigger, and the bigger they get, the more money they seem to lose. It’s the classic Silicon Valley playbook: growth at all costs, profitability is a problem for some other schmuck down the line. We saw how that movie ended in 1999, and it wasn’t pretty. And honestly, it’s just insulting. I have to fight with my ISP every month over a $5 charge for a modem I own, but these guys can light $91 million on fire in three months and Wall Street throws them a parade. It’s madness.
So, We're Just Pretending Numbers Don't Matter Anymore?
One Hundred Times Nothing is Still Nothing
So we have a company losing record amounts of money, being propped up by the desperation of a tech giant. What does the market think it’s worth?
The stock currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio of almost 100.
A hundred.
For context, a P/S ratio of 10 is considered expensive for a high-growth tech company. A P/S of 100 is a statistical anomaly. It’s a number that implies not just strong growth for years, but a complete and total domination of a market that will itself grow to an astronomical size. You’re not buying a company at that price; you’re buying a prayer. You’re betting that this money-losing operation will somehow, someday, become one of the most profitable enterprises on Earth.
And for what? For being a middleman. For being the guy who got his NVIDIA order in before everyone else. This ain't some technological moat. It's a supply chain advantage that will disappear the second the chip crunch eases.
Who is actually buying this stock at $125 a share? What are they thinking? Offcourse, they’re up 4x in six months, so maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe the laws of financial gravity have been repealed and I just didn't get the memo. Maybe a company’s ability to actually make a profit no longer matters.
But I doubt it. They’re selling a story, a beautiful, compelling story about the infinite future of artificial intelligence. It’s a great story. But when the bill comes due, and the market starts asking how you’re going to turn all that glorious revenue into actual, you know, profit...
So, We're Just Gambling Now?
Look, let's call this what it is. Nebius isn't a stock, it's a casino chip. It's a pure, leveraged bet on the AI hype train continuing at full throttle with no derailments for the next decade. The fundamentals are a joke. The valuation is a fantasy. The entire enterprise is floating on a sea of Microsoft's panic-spending and the market's infinite appetite for a good story. The real winners here are NVIDIA, who get to sell their chips at obscene margins, and Microsoft, who successfully offloaded a massive capital expenditure and supply-chain headache onto someone else's balance sheet. Nebius is just the patsy in the middle, getting rich for now, but holding all of the risk. And if you’re buying the stock today, so are you.
Reference article source：
- Nebius Stock Is Rising Thursday: What's Going On? - Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS)
- If You'd Invested $10,000 in Nebius (NBIS) Stock 6 Months Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Today
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