Title: Lukashenko's "Peacekeeper" Gambit: A Numbers Game He Can't Win
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s recent statements paint a grim picture of Belarus in 2025: a nation with its sovereignty eroding under the ever-tightening grip of Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin. While Tsikhanouskaya rightly focuses on the humanitarian crisis – the political prisoners and the ongoing repression – she also emphasizes the strategic implications for Europe. But it’s Lukashenko's recent posturing as a potential "peacekeeper" in Ukraine that demands a closer look. Is this a genuine offer, or just another cynical calculation? Let's analyze the numbers, shall we?
The "Readiness" Mirage
Lukashenko's regime claims it's ready to deploy peacekeepers to Ukraine, but this rings hollow. Aleksei Skabei, a Belarusian military official, stated that such a mission is possible "only with the consent of the parties." (A standard caveat, of course). But here's the rub: Belarus has been a staging ground for Russian aggression since the start of the war. To believe Lukashenko is now a neutral actor requires a suspension of disbelief that frankly, I just don't have.
Consider the drone smuggling incident reported by Belarus Drone Smuggling Attempt Foiled by Polish Border Guard, $892K in Cigarettes Seized — UNITED24 Media. Polish Border Guards intercepted a drone carrying $892,515 worth of cigarettes from Belarus. This isn't about cigarettes, it's about plausible deniability. It’s about testing borders, probing defenses, and creating a climate of instability. It's a low-level provocation, but it demonstrates a clear pattern of behavior that contradicts any notion of Belarus as a force for peace. How can a country simultaneously facilitate smuggling operations and offer to be a peacekeeper? The math simply doesn't add up.
The Internal Resistance Factor
Tsikhanouskaya highlights the internal resistance to Lukashenko’s policies, even within the government. She claims that resentment is growing, even among officials who traditionally supported him. This is anecdotal, of course, but it suggests a potential weakness in Lukashenko's seemingly monolithic power structure. If even a fraction of these officials are genuinely concerned about Belarusian sovereignty, it introduces a degree of unpredictability into the equation.
However, the level of repression makes quantifying this resistance nearly impossible. Tsikhanouskaya describes it as "Stalinist-level," and the BBC's reporting on released political prisoners confirms the brutality of the regime. Larysa Shchyrakova, a former prisoner, spoke of losing everything – her home, her family, her possessions – for "extremism." Mikalai Dziadok detailed months of abuse in solitary confinement. These aren't isolated incidents; they are part of a systematic effort to crush dissent. Given this context, any public expression of opposition is an act of extraordinary courage, and its absence doesn't necessarily indicate acceptance.
The Trump Card (and its Consequences)
The release of political prisoners – including Tsikhanouskaya's husband – following negotiations between Lukashenko and Donald Trump is a complex factor. On one hand, it's a positive humanitarian development. On the other, it provides Lukashenko with a propaganda victory. As Tsikhanouskaya notes, Lukashenko uses human lives as bargaining chips, seeking concessions and recognition.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Trump referred to Lukashenko as "the highly respected president," a diplomatic boost for a leader widely considered illegitimate. Was this a calculated move, or simply a reflection of Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy? Regardless, it created an opening for Lukashenko to exploit, and he's clearly trying to leverage it to regain legitimacy in the West.
But here’s the inconvenient truth for Lukashenko: the West isn't buying it. Tsikhanouskaya states that the EU and the US have official documents declaring him illegitimate. He's an "outcast dictator," a "war criminal." Any attempts to portray himself as a peacemaker are likely to be met with skepticism, if not outright rejection.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Lukashenko's "peacekeeper" gambit is a cynical attempt to rehabilitate his image and extract concessions from the West. The numbers – the documented support for Russia's war effort, the ongoing repression, the border provocations – paint a clear picture of a regime that is anything but peaceful. While internal resistance may exist, it's unlikely to significantly alter the balance of power in the short term. The West should see this for what it is: a desperate attempt by a discredited leader to cling to power.
Tags: belarus