Alright, let's talk about the Internet of Things, or as I like to call it, the "Internet of Too Much Hype." Every year, these tech prognosticators roll out their shiny new reports, promising a world where your toaster talks to your fridge and your fridge tattles on your late-night snack habits. And every year, I gotta wonder: are we really buying this?
The Great IoT Slowdown (Or, Why the Future Keeps Getting Delayed)
So, IoT Analytics just dropped their "State of IoT 2025: Number of connected IoT devices growing 14% to 21.1 billion globally - IoT Analytics" report, and the big takeaway is... well, it's kinda meh. They're forecasting 21.1 billion connected devices globally by the end of this year. Sounds big, right? A 14% jump from last year, when we hit 18.5 billion. But here's the kicker: that 21.1 billion? It's lower than what they predicted in 2024. And even lower than their 2018 forecast. Yeah, you heard me. We're talking 300 to 400 million devices short of previous estimates.
What happened? "Capital expenditure deferrals" and "softer demand in China," they say. Gimme a break. What that really means is companies aren't shelling out cash as fast as these analysts hoped, and the biggest market in the world is feeling a bit... sluggish. It's like planning a massive party, sending out a ton of invites, and then realizing half the guest list decided to stay home and watch Netflix. This ain't just about gadgets; it's about real-world economic friction hitting the tech fantasy.
And then there's the whole cellular IoT scene. Analyst Satyajit Sinha points out that NB-IoT, once touted as the next big thing for low-power devices, is fading faster than my last New Year's resolution. AT&T already pulled the plug on its NB-IoT data plans back in November 2024. That's a pretty strong signal, isn't it? It tells me that for all the talk of seamless connectivity, the underlying tech is still a Wild West of competing standards, with some getting shot down quicker than others. Why are we always so quick to jump on the next buzzword before the current one has even proven itself? Are we just addicted to the promise of innovation, even if it rarely delivers on its grandest claims?
Samsara and the Promise of "Smart" Everything
Speaking of companies trying to cash in on the "smart" revolution, let's talk Samsara. These guys, trading as IOT on the NYSE, are pushing hard. They've just rolled out Commercial Navigation for U.S. drivers and some "advanced AI features" for European fleets. Plus, they're cozying up with VDO and Allianz UK. Their strategy? More revenue per customer, international expansion, and an integrated platform for "fleet safety, compliance, and efficiency." Sounds great on paper, doesn't it? Like a shiny, perfectly optimized future where every truck knows exactly what it's doing, and the boss has all the data.
But the market ain't so sure about Samsara's true value. Simply Wall St Community contributors have fair value estimates all over the map, from a measly US$13.51 to a sky-high US$59.16 per share. That's not just a "wide range"; that's a damn chasm. It tells me nobody really knows how to price this company, or if their "integrated platform" is truly a game-changer or just another sophisticated set of digital handcuffs for businesses. They're projected to hit $2.4 billion in revenue by 2028, with a decent chunk of earnings, but those are just numbers on a spreadsheet. Will the real world play along?
And let's not forget the nitty-gritty, the stuff that actually makes these "smart" systems useful: power quality. Scientific Reports just published a paper on "IoT enabled smart power quality analysis in three phase electrical systems with practical implementation - Nature." We're talking about preventing electrical network disturbances that cost industrial units billions every year. Billions, people! So, a low-cost IoT-based Smart PQA system, like the one designed with an Arduino Mega and ESP32, sounds like a godsend. It costs a mere 5414 INR compared to 2,00,000 INR for conventional systems. That's a huge difference – it's like buying a Toyota instead of a Ferrari, offcourse you'd expect a difference.
They say it monitors 25 parameters and stores data on the cloud. Fantastic. But then you look at the "experimental analysis" from that lab in Hyderabad, India. Acceptable error margins for Vrms, Irms, Power Factor, and Real Power for basic monitoring. Okay. But then it hits you: "higher errors for reactive and apparent power (~10-21%)." Whoa, hold on a minute. For "basic monitoring," sure, maybe that's fine. But when you're talking about preventing industrial losses that run into the hundreds of billions, "basic" ain't gonna cut it. These systems are supposed to be like a doctor for your electrical grid, but if the doctor's thermometer is off by 20 degrees, you're not getting a diagnosis, you're getting a lottery ticket. This is a bad idea. No, 'bad' doesn't cover it—this is a five-alarm dumpster fire waiting to happen if companies rely on these things for precision. Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here for expecting accuracy in a world obsessed with cheap and fast.
The Connected Future: Still a Bit Janky
So, where does this leave us? We're heading towards 39 billion connected devices by 2030, maybe over 50 billion by 2035, with AI driving a lot of it. Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and Cellular are still the big players, making up nearly 80% of connections. The cellular chipset market is booming, especially 5G. But it feels like we're building a massive, sprawling digital metropolis with a bunch of shoddy infrastructure and half-baked promises. We're connecting everything, but are we actually making it better? Or just adding more points of failure, more data to sift through, and more opportunities for things to go wrong? It’s like strapping a jet engine to a bicycle and calling it the future of transport. Sure, it’s fast, but are you really getting anywhere safely?
All these numbers, all these forecasts... they always paint a picture of relentless, upward growth. But the reality, as always, is far messier. We're not just hurtling towards a connected future; we're kinda stumbling, correcting course, and occasionally tripping over our own feet.
Still Waiting for the Magic to Happen
Tags: iot