Alright, let's get this straight. Pfizer, the darling of the pandemic, the company that practically printed money for a hot minute, is now trying to sell us a "recovery" story? Give me a break. Their stock is down 50% over the last three years? That ain't a recovery, that's a slow-motion train wreck.
The Illusion of Growth
They're spinning this narrative about exceeding Street forecasts in Q3, thanks to the COVID vaccine. Okay, great. But how long can they ride that dead horse? The world's moved on, people aren't lining up for boosters like they used to. What's their plan for, you know, actual sustainable growth? Pfizer raises earnings outlook after Q3 beat (PFE:NYSE)
Then there's the whole "cost realignment plan" – $7 billion in savings by 2027. Translation: layoffs and cutting corners. Sure, that might boost the bottom line temporarily, but what about innovation? What about investing in the future instead of just patching up the present? It's like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
And these new drugs they're touting? $20 billion in revenue by 2030? That's six years away! A lot can happen in six years. Six years ago, we weren't even wearing masks.
The Seagen Gamble
Okay, the Seagen acquisition. I'll give them that, oncology is a smart move. Cancer ain't going anywhere. But is throwing billions at another company really a solution? It feels like they're just trying to buy their way out of this mess. Two of Seagen's products delivered double-digit growth? Okay, cool. But what about the rest of the portfolio? Are they just hoping one or two blockbusters will carry the entire load?
And speaking of throwing money around, what's with this Metsera debacle? They wanna get into the obesity drug market, which, yeah, is gonna be huge. Everyone wants a magic pill to make them skinny. But then Novo Nordisk swoops in with a better offer? And Pfizer's response? "The proposal is illusory!" Seriously? Sounds like a toddler throwing a tantrum.
They're threatening legal action? Over a biotech company? I mean, come on. Maybe, just maybe, someone else saw something they didn't, or were willing to pay more. It's business. Get over it.
Offcourse, the Pfizer PR machine is working overtime to convince us that everything is fine, that this is just a temporary setback. But I'm not buying it.
Patiently Waiting for What, Exactly?
They want us to be patient, to "hold on as this recovery story plays out." But what if there is no recovery story? What if this is just the beginning of a long, slow decline? What if their new drugs flop? What if the competition gets even fiercer?
And let's be real, at 8x forward earnings estimates, "reasonably priced" is a stretch. That's still a hefty price tag for a company with so much uncertainty looming over it.
Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe everyone else sees something I don't. Maybe Pfizer really is on the verge of a comeback. But I doubt it.
This Ship is Sinking...
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